Is November 2023 a good time to invest?
Perspective on the Stock Market's Return in November 2023 and a Look at the Probable December 2023 Return. November's 9% return on the S&P500 was strong, but past Novembers have seen even higher returns. Historical data suggests that December is likely to deliver a positive return, with a 77.3% chance of success.
- COIN.
- SQ.
- DDOG.
- EXPE.
- PODD.
Between November 2023 and early March 2024, the stock market moved higher (following a generally downward trend between August and October 2023). The market's recent strength seems to reflect, in part, expectations of a major change in Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.
Putting aside down years for the market, the month historically tends to be a good one for investors. That's especially true because the S&P 500 tends to hang onto gains after big consecutive up weeks.
November 2023 Market Summary
Stocks recorded a highly bullish November as the S&P 500 advanced 9.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average charged 9.2% higher, and the NASDAQ surged 10.8%.
- Best Months: April, June, July, October, November, and December.
- Worst Months: January, February, March, August, and September are weaker periods.
| Ticker | Company | Nov. stock gain |
|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms | 11.2% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 9.4% |
| NVDA | Nvidia | 20.9% |
| TSLA | Tesla | 16.7% |
December 2023 Market Summary
The Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose 4.9%, the S&P 500 advanced 4.5%, and the NASDAQ jumped 5.6%. Small-caps had a particularly standout month, as the Russell 2000 surged 12.2% in December.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
The final quarterly and annual numbers for 2023 were exceptionally good. They translate into substantial annual gains for millions of investors who hold stocks and bonds indirectly, through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and trusts, often in workplace retirement accounts.
Do stocks rise in November?
Stocks ripped higher in November as extreme pessimism morphed into confidence about interest rates and inflation. The S&P 500 surged 8.9 percent between October 31 and November 30, its biggest monthly gain since July 2022.
According to Reuters, since 1945, April and December are tied as the best-performing months of the year for stocks, with an average return of 1.6%. (September is notoriously the worst, with an average loss of -0.6%.) During recessions, April's positive performances can be even more pronounced.
The Long-Term Trading Strategy
Again, the theory says that stocks generally fall just prior to holidays because traders offload their holdings in order to avoid the risk of significant news appearing while the markets are closed.
The yield for on-the-run 10-year Treasuries began the month at 4.90% before declining 54 bps to close the period at 4.36%. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index had its best-performing month since May 1985, gaining 4.53%.
Instead of ending the year with a bang by surpassing its all-time high, the S&P 500 let out a whimper — to paraphrase the poet T.S. Eliot's famous lines — and fell 0.28% on the last trading day of 2023. Other major indexes lost momentum and retreated too.
Equity markets
Small capitalization stocks led in December 2023 (Russell 2000 +12.2 percent), narrowing the performance gap versus large cap stocks that marked most of 2023.
| Number | Category | Investments |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overpriced EV producers | Tesla |
| 2 | Oil | Brent Crude, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP |
| 3 | Selected luxury goods | Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy, Kering and Dior |
| 4 | Shipping | ZIM Integrated Shipping |
We just said December is a good month, but the Santa Claus Rally is usually reserved for the last week in December. Earlier in the month, there's often high volatility before and after earnings calls. If you bought low enough in October or November, you might feel confident enough to ride those stocks to January.
The September effect highlights historically weak returns during the ninth month of the year, which could be aided by institutional investors wrapping up their third-quarter positions. In fact, looking at the chart above of monthly average returns, September averages the worst in the calendar year.
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for NOV in the last 3 months. The average price target is $23.45 with a high forecast of $30.00 and a low forecast of $17.00. The average price target represents a 15.06% change from the last price of $20.38.
Why do stocks go up in November?
November traditionally kicks off the best six months of the year for the S&P 500, typically because stock buying by companies and pension plans picks up on Nov. 1. The tax-loss harvesting deadline for mutual funds usually is Oct.
- Thai Beverage. As the economy in Thailand strengthens and tourists return, Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX: Y92) is capitalising on the upswing. ...
- Genting Singapore. ...
- Sembcorp Industries. ...
- CapitaLand Ascott Trust. ...
- UOB.
Percentage change in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
29, 2023. Both by the end of the year, the S&P 500 was +24.2% and Nasdaq was +43.4%. Against a backdrop of relentless economic angst, stocks soared in 2023.
Four of the top ten stocks, which saw the maximum increase in value during December 2023, were from the banking domain. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, L&T, SBI, NTPC, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, ITC, and Axis Bank rose the most in value month-on-month, as per data analysed by brokerage Motilal Oswal.
Coinbase, Nvidia, Palantir, and other tech names dominate the list of the year's best stocks. Amid a strong stock market rally in 2023, Coinbase COIN performed best among U.S.-listed stocks covered by Morningstar analysts, as the cryptocurrency exchange platform rebounded from a steep downturn in 2022.
