Are interest rates falling in the US?
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? It's a matter of when, not if, according to the central bank. But the Fed has indicated that consumers shouldn't expect any cuts until at least the spring. To combat ongoing inflation, it raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023.
Therefore, unless inflation slows down significantly in the coming months, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall back to 3% anytime soon. In fact, some experts predict that mortgage rates could reach 10% by 2025.
Other mortgage rate forecasts
Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors predict that mortgage rates will gradually descend in 2024, to around 6% in the final three months of the year.
Despite the recent surge, most housing market experts expect mortgage rates to recede over 2024, especially once the Federal Reserve begins its expected interest rate cuts. But whether lower rates will create a meaningful shift in home affordability remains to be seen.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
Since July 2023, the Federal Reserve has kept the federal-funds rate at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, far above typical levels over the past decade. But we expect the first federal-funds rate cut to come in May or June 2024, bringing the rate down to 4.00% to 4.25% at the end of 2024.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Current mortgage interest rate trends
Meanwhile, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased from 6.29% to 6.26%. After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.
What is todays interest rate?
| Product | Interest rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed-rate | 6.576% | 6.661% |
| 20-year fixed-rate | 6.260% | 6.359% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 5.849% | 5.985% |
| 10-year fixed-rate | 5.750% | 5.964% |
According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
Mortgage rates will decrease in 2024, and buyers will pay fewer discount points. By summer, first-time home buyers should expect current mortgage rates near 4.25 percent.
As a baseline scenario, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Higher interest rates have gotten a bad rap, but over the long term, they may provide more income for savers and help investors allocate capital more efficiently. In a higher-rate environment, equity investors can seek opportunities in value-oriented and defensive sectors as well as international stocks.
Because higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, people will eventually start spending less. The demand for goods and services will then drop, which will cause inflation to fall. Similarly, to combat the rising inflation in 2022, the Fed has been increasing rates throughout the year.
The answer is No. when interest rates rise; not everybody is worse off as actions with the loaned funds differ. People who take up loans to purchase assets such as a house or cars are worse off in any interest rate rise as more is expected for them to finance their purchases.
is it bad to have low interest rates for a long time? Not for you as a person but might be troublesome for the economy as a whole because when there is a lower interest rate there will be a much higher borrowing which might result in inflation.
Interest rates for the most popular 30-year fixed mortgage averaged around 6.34% in January 2024, according to Zillow data. Rates for 15-year mortgages, which are also relatively popular, were 5.62%.
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower. But, unfortunately, there's no guarantee.” “I expect we will end the year with rates at about 6% to 6.2% -- much higher than during the pandemic but still relatively low by historical standards.”
What will the Fed rate be in 2025?
Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.75 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.
The Fed has repeatedly raised rates in an effort to corral rampant inflation that has reached 40-year highs. Higher interest rates may help curb soaring prices, but they also increase the cost of borrowing for mortgages, personal loans and credit cards.
We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6 percent by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA's forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
